The Next Five Years in Shipping

According to a report from Norton Rose Fulbright, shipping is the most negative response to high-capacity or high-speed assets, with almost 30 per cent of the participants of the Survey conducted by Norton Rose Fulbright, seeing these as creating overcapacity – much higher than aviation and rail (11 and six per cent). While some feel they will open up new opportunities, 22 per cent express doubt over their sustainability.

2014.03.14 - The Next Five Years in Shipping

In common with the other two transport sectors (rail and aviation), shipping respondents believe that larger participants in the sector are likely to become more dominant over the next five years, and that joint venture/alliance and pool activity will also increase. However, running a close third in this sector is the view that new funding sources will provide new participants.

Worries about supply and demand imbalances (ie, overcapacity) at 36 per cent, outweigh other issues such as intermodal/logistical inefficiencies, emission controls or inadequate
infrastructure (all at five – six per cent).Optimism about rising fares/freights is stable at 66 per cent, with 10 per cent fewer than in 2010 expecting a fall. There is also increased optimism regarding investment in infrastructure, with 62 per cent foreseeing a rise in this area. Similarly, 77 per cent think passenger numbers/freight volume will increase (though fewer participants than commentators). Half the respondents predict a rise in routes/services and only 8 per cent are talking of a fall (down from 31 per cent in 2010).

Fuel prices are an ongoing concern and the number one determining criterion for fuel choice, followed by regulatory and environmental controls (of more concern to commentators than to participants). Focus is on equity raising and/or debt, forming strategic alliances/joint ventures/pools, with a growing interest in strategic acquisitions and the strategic disposal of non-core assets.

Source: Norton Rose Fulbright

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